Commentaries

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Q4 2020: A Wrinkle in Space and Time: Redwood’s 2021 “Outlook”

Quarterly Commentary Dec 31, 2020

Thirteen Standard Deviations. A global pandemic caused shutdowns across the globe and slowed businesses into limbo. Investors fled risk assets as the future remained highly uncertain. In March of 2020, the 10-year bull market rally following the financial crisis ended abruptly.

Q3 2020: The Best Lines Are Odd Non Sequiturs

Quarterly Commentary Sep 30, 2020

Major indices ended the third quarter with gains despite continued global economic challenges. The S&P 500 Index rose 8.93% and the MSCI ACWI ex US Index rose 6.34%. However, for the entire year of 2020 (1/1/2020 – 9/30/2020) the S&P 500 Index is only up 5.57% and the MSCI ACW ex US Index is down -5.07%. Even if an investor entering the year held throughout the whole year to match indices, the risks far outweighed the rewards. Keep in mind, during the pandemic in March, the S&P 500 Index was down over -11% in ONE SINGLE DAY. Hyper uncertain periods of time are met by large swings in volatility, which may be far from over...

Q2 2020: The Illusion of Price, The Opportunity of Return

Quarterly Commentary Jun 30, 2020

Global asset returns in Q2 of 2020 displayed a stark contrast to the panic of Q1, when equity markets experienced drawdowns over -30%. Fortunately for investors, an unparalleled barrage of both Federal Reserve market intervention and government aid and spending in the U.S. stopped the bleeding. After a vertiginous start to 2020, asset prices suffered a precipitous fall, leading the S&P 500 Index to experience virtually the worst quarter ever in Q1 – only to then rise dramatically off the lows reached in March, to close one of the best quarters ever in Q2. At one point...

Advisor Partner Conference Call/Update - 4/20/2020

Partner Updates Apr 20, 2020

Redwood Portfolio Managers Richard Duff and Michael Cheung recaps the first quarter of 2020 and explain why it is still important to manage risk from here.

The views expressed are those of Redwood and are provided for information purposes only. Statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. No statements are made as to guarantees on any specific outcome or profit. Investments or strategies mention may not be suitable for you. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendation appropriate for you. Before acting on information shown here, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.

Q1 2020: The Math of Loss & The Art of Calm

Quarterly Commentary Mar 31, 2020

The numbers are important. Investors no longer have to wonder when the next major market correction (and bear market) will arrive. In Q1 of 2020, the historic bull market was met, and ended, with a historic selloff. No more “what-ifs”, no more looking backwards at data such as “how would it have done in a crisis like 2008”, no more Monte-Carlo simulations and predictions. Investment portfolio construction, and more importantly, investment process in times of distress, was tested in real-time. In the first quarter of 2020...

2019 Year End: Hindsight Should Not Be Your 2020

Quarterly Commentary Jan 24, 2020

Hindsight should never be the reason for adjusting an investment portfolio. Period. Positive or negative performance of the past has come and gone; it cannot be changed. However, analyzing historical data can help understand and manage risk going forward…

Q3 2019: The Fulcrum of Investing Reality – Return vs. Risk

Quarterly Commentary Oct 25, 2019

Time heals most wounds – or does it? Just a little more than a year has passed since what would have been an “optimistic” third quarter check point in 2018. Although the close of a “quarter” (for example, September 30^th each year) is arbitrary by nature, it may not be arbitrary to many investors who use a quarter-end report to look back and wonder how their investments have been faring. However, a common story often occurs. Somewhere – somewhere out there, is a product that has inevitably performed well, and of course the investor missed out. Although many recognize the fine print, “past performance is not indicative of future results”, it would seem that few heed its warning.

Q2 2019: Yesterday’s Headlines Not Necessarily Tomorrow’s Problems

Quarterly Commentary Jul 17, 2019

Yesterday’s headlines may not necessarily be tomorrow’s problems. Investors would be wise to remember that a gain today, can still be a loss tomorrow. Speculation and betting on the near-term direction of any market is a fool’s errand. Instead, we believe having disciplined investment and risk management processes, regardless of what the markets are doing, is the key to long-term investment success. Afterall, you can’t control the market’s performance, but you can control process and risk management.

Q1 2019: CLIMBING PARADOX MOUNTAIN

Quarterly Commentary Apr 18, 2019

The market may give, take away, and give again – but that shouldn’t distract an investor from focusing on their long-term goals of preserving and growing capital, especially in today’s environment where there’s a lot of noise. In seeking long-term appreciation within a financial goal, our view is that there is no need to be binary in bets.

2018 Year End: Rewarding An Investor For Discipline and Risk Management

Quarterly Commentary Jan 16, 2019

Investing is not a riskless process and returns do not materialize in a forty-five-degree angle. As evident in 2018, returns can come and go very quickly. This is why it is imperative to consider risk first. While it is easy to get lost in the noise of various metrics, academic jargon, news, and “conventional wisdom”, risk to an investor is as SIMPLE as drawdown of capital.