Quarterly Commentary

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Q2 2020: The Illusion of Price, The Opportunity of Return
Quarterly Commentary Jun 30, 2020

Global asset returns in Q2 of 2020 displayed a stark contrast to the panic of Q1, when equity markets experienced drawdowns over -30%. Fortunately for investors, an unparalleled barrage of both Federal Reserve market intervention and government aid and spending in the U.S. stopped the bleeding. After a vertiginous start to 2020, asset prices suffered a precipitous fall, leading the S&P 500 Index to experience virtually the worst quarter ever in Q1 – only to then rise dramatically off the lows reached in March, to close one of the best quarters ever in Q2. At one point...

Q1 2020: The Math of Loss & The Art of Calm
Quarterly Commentary Mar 31, 2020

The numbers are important. Investors no longer have to wonder when the next major market correction (and bear market) will arrive. In Q1 of 2020, the historic bull market was met, and ended, with a historic selloff. No more “what-ifs”, no more looking backwards at data such as “how would it have done in a crisis like 2008”, no more Monte-Carlo simulations and predictions. Investment portfolio construction, and more importantly, investment process in times of distress, was tested in real-time. In the first quarter of 2020...

2019 Year End: Hindsight Should Not Be Your 2020
Quarterly Commentary Jan 24, 2020
Hindsight should never be the reason for adjusting an investment portfolio. Period. Positive or negative performance of the past has come and gone; it cannot be changed. However, analyzing historical data can help understand and manage risk going forward…
Q3 2019: The Fulcrum of Investing Reality – Return vs. Risk
Quarterly Commentary Oct 25, 2019
Time heals most wounds – or does it? Just a little more than a year has passed since what would have been an “optimistic” third quarter check point in 2018. Although the close of a “quarter” (for example, September 30th each year) is arbitrary by nature, it may not be arbitrary to many investors who use a quarter-end report to look back and wonder how their investments have been faring. However, a common story often occurs. Somewhere – somewhere out there, is a product that has inevitably performed well, and of course the investor missed out. Although many recognize the fine print, “past performance is not indicative of future results”, it would seem that few heed its warning.
Q2 2019: Yesterday’s Headlines Not Necessarily Tomorrow’s Problems
Quarterly Commentary Jul 17, 2019
Yesterday’s headlines may not necessarily be tomorrow’s problems. Investors would be wise to remember that a gain today, can still be a loss tomorrow. Speculation and betting on the near-term direction of any market is a fool’s errand. Instead, we believe having disciplined investment and risk management processes, regardless of what the markets are doing, is the key to long-term investment success. Afterall, you can’t control the market’s performance, but you can control process and risk management.
Quarterly Commentary Apr 18, 2019
The market may give, take away, and give again – but that shouldn’t distract an investor from focusing on their long-term goals of preserving and growing capital, especially in today’s environment where there’s a lot of noise. In seeking long-term appreciation within a financial goal, our view is that there is no need to be binary in bets.
2018 Year End: Rewarding An Investor For Discipline and Risk Management
Quarterly Commentary Jan 16, 2019
Investing is not a riskless process and returns do not materialize in a forty-five-degree angle. As evident in 2018, returns can come and go very quickly. This is why it is imperative to consider risk first. While it is easy to get lost in the noise of various metrics, academic jargon, news, and “conventional wisdom”, risk to an investor is as SIMPLE as drawdown of capital.
Q3 2018: An Investor’s Internal Trade War
Quarterly Commentary Oct 17, 2018
Investors seem to be struggling with their own tradeoffs including which headline to trade, resulting in an emotion driven see-saw of chasing returns then capitulation.
Q2 2018: Finding The Path of Least Resistance
Quarterly Commentary Jul 17, 2018
Looking for trends that might not exist, can cause one to miss trends that do persist. Investors are always trying to outsmart one another, constantly guessing what will happen tomorrow with today’s news. Whether it is reacting based on fear, or on greed, or maybe just impatience; investing irrationally based on emotions never seem to have a consistent outcome. Especially in the recent months where volatility has been higher but equity prices trended sideways, it may be prudent to invest with patience in a disciplined process.
Q1 2018: How Risk and Volatility Are Different
Quarterly Commentary Apr 16, 2018
Many investors may believe the term "risk" and "volatility" are synonymous. The key difference is that while volatility can come and go, risk to the investor is always there.
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